hmmm... Here's how 'host' nations have done over the years in the FIFA World Cup:

|WORLD CUP|__ |HOST|_____ |WINNER (OUTCOME)|

-------------- ------- ------------------------

*1930-- URUGUAY------------URUGUAY 4-2 ARGENTINA

*1934-- ITALY-----------------ITALY 2-1 CZECHOSLOVAKIA

~1938-- FRANCE---------------ITALY 4-2 URUGUAY

~1950-- BRAZIL---------------URUGUAY 2-1 BRAZIL

*1954-- SWITZERLAND-------WEST GERMANY 3-2 HUNGARY

1958-- SWEDEN--------------BRAZIL 5-2 SWEDEN

~1962-- CHILE-----------------BRAZIL 3-1 CZECHOSLOVAKIA

*1966-- ENGLAND------------ENGLAND 4-2 WEST GERMANY

~1970-- MEXICO--------------BRAZIL 4-1 ITALY

*1974-- WEST GERMANY-----WEST GERMANY 2-1 HOLLAND

*1978-- ARGENTINA----------ARGENTINA 3-1 HOLLAND

~1982-- SPAIN----------------ITALY 3-1 WEST GERMANY

~1986-- MEXICO--------------ARGENTINA 3-2 WEST GERMANY

~1990-- ITALY-----------------WEST GERMANY 1-0 ARGENTINA

1994-- USA--------------------BRAZIL 0-0 ITALY (BRAZIL WIN 3-2 PEN)

*1998-- FRANCE---------------FRANCE 3-0 BRAZIL

2002-- JAPAN/S KOREA-----BRAZIL 2-0 GERMANY

2006-- GERMANY------------(?)

2010-- SOUTH AFRICA------(?)



' * ' = Host Nation Won (7 of 17 World Cup Finals)



' ~ ' = Winning Nation adjacant to Host Nation geographically speaking (7 of 17 World Cup Champions came from a country that is geographically similar/near the host nation).



Brazil is the only country that has won a World Cup while being a non-host and not sharing geographical region w/ the host country (1958 in Sweden, 1994 in USA, 2002 in Japan/S.Korea)



Thus, 14 of the 17 World Cup Finals were won by the host nation OR a nation in the similar geographical region as the host nation. So support of home fans & homefield familiarity/comfort seem to be the most important factor.

According to past trends, IF Brazil doesn't win the World Cup, the winner will be either the host-nation or a country that is nearby geographically to the host.