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Poisson Distribution


The Poisson Distribution gives a model for the random occurrence of rare events observed in short intervals.

Given an average rate for a random occurrence, the Poisson Distribution can predict the probability of specific divergences from that rate.

That is all it does, but this much gives a very useful model for many real world situations.

The Poisson Distribution can also simulate the Binomial Distribution for small values of p.

Source: www.umass.edu

This explains why rare events happen to occur frequently sometimes within a very short time frame.

Therefore if the data sometimes seems fishy with respect to rare events occurring frequently then it is ok since it is due to Poisson Distribution.

Ironically, Poisson is the french word for FISH! :P

 

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Login to find out (October 2, 2005 at 10:18pm)
so as Najamudin said

"This explains why rare events happen to occur frequently sometimes within a very short time frame. Therefore if the data sometimes seems fishy with respect rare events occurring frequently then it is ok since it is due to Poisson Distribution"

Also this means that you are very unluky and you should feel pissed off :)
 
Login to find out (October 2, 2005 at 9:47pm)
Thanks najamudin.. Very intersting

also the deviation from the mean of the posions is the same as the rate of occurance of the event... that means that if the event is really very very rare, then it is variance will also be very very small.. i.e. the rare event will occure frequently with very very low probability... That is intersting.. I just saw it now... In other words, we can say that rare events are consistent as they will always be rare, but frequent events are inconsistent, they tent to vay in their frequency over time.